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Basic Probability
Basic Probability
Expected Value
Advanced Probability
Kelly Criterion (Bankroll Growth)
Misc. Gambling Probability
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Basic Probability

The probability of an outcome of an event is the ratio of that outcome’s occurrence over an arbitrarily large number of trials of that event. In other words, probability is how often we can expect to see something happen. Probability is the foundation of an analytical approach to gambling. It goes beyond dreams, gut feelings and lucky charms. An understanding of probability is crucial to any gambler’s long term survival.

The mathematical formula looks like this:-

probability formula
 
 
Where p(x) is the probability of event x, n0 is the number of ways event x is possible and n is the total number of possible events.

This is the simple approach to probability and it assumes that outcomes are completely random and that each event is equally likely to occur. This is generally the case for most casino games. We can say that a craps dice is just as likely to come 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. So in this kind of situation we can make a ratio between each event and the number of events to determine the probability. In the case of the craps dice we have 6 possible outcomes, so we can say that the probability of a 3 coming up is 1 / 6 or about 16.7% . Or we could ask, what is the probability of an even number being rolled. There are 3 ways to make an even number; 2, 4 or 6. There are 6 possible events. So the probability of an even number is 3 (the number of ways to roll even) / 6 (the number of possible outcomes). We can expect to see an even number 50% of the time.
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