The short run on the other hand is a bit more freaky. Or put another way, the short run is volatile. Rather than the casino being guaranteed to be ahead, it is quite probable that the results could go either way. It is only in the short run that the gambler is given a window of opportunity to beat the casino.
So the aim of our Hit and Run strategy is to hit the casino quickly and ride the short term volatility and when it swings in our favor, we lock in our profits before the casino can get into the long run.
Defining the short term
When you are ahead, it is difficult for most gamblers to stop. This makes sense because after a series of wins, you will necessarily be psychologically confident and there may even be a chemical high in your brain. But for successful Hit and Run strategist you need to avoid psychological traps. So one of the most important factors to your success, is to define your short run.
You define the short run by having a set target profit, a limit on time or limit on the number of games. So we may have a set of short run limits like; a target of $100, a 1 hour play limit or limit ourselves to 50 blackjack hands. You don’t really need set all three parameters but you should have at least one of them. The most common is to have a profit target.
Again, its important to stress that if you do set a profit target, that you stick to it. Once you break your own rules, you will fall into a psychological mess if you hit a losing streak because you have not prepared yourself for such a scenario. So that you will end up gambling based on emotion rather than logic.
Hit and Run Bet Sizing
The other consideration in your hit and run strategy is the size of your bets. It is advisable that you bet relatively big. This is because volatility is the Hit and Run strategist friend. It requires daring of heart to make this kind of guerilla attack but you know that only this kind of attack will have a chance against the casino. The bigger you bets, the easier it will be to hit your profit targets. Therefore you only require a small deviation to lock in your profit target and get out. So it is advisable that your bet sizes are at least 20% of your profit target. In this way you don’t require a crazy swing in your favor. You only need a few small win streaks. In fact you only need to be 5 wins ahead of the casino before you make your strategic retreat.
You should balance this against the size of your bankroll. The larger your bet size is to your bankroll, the more likely that you will go bust.
The purist Hit and Run strategy
Ignoring the pleasure of gambling. The pure and most extreme version of the Hit and Run strategy is to put your entire bankroll on your first bet. This might sound insane. Because there is an even chance that the casino will simply take you out in one hit. But consider that this move minimizes the house advantage. By shutting our gambling down to a single hand, on blackjack playing basic strategy, we can reduce the house edge to 0.5%. But if we play 100 hands over an hour, in fact the house advantage increases to around 30%. This is because the house has a churn, it takes 0.5% on every single hand we played. That small house edge is there on every hand as the chips go back and forth. This is how the casino makes so much money out of a “low margin” game like blackjack. The house edge is calculated on a single game and that’s what people mean when they say it is a 0.5% house edge game. But in reality that edge gets compounded by every hand we play and the house in fact ends up with a 30% advantage.
If you can understand the above point, it should be more clear why the insanity of the purist hit and run strategy makes the most sense. It reduces the house advantage in the order of 29.5%.
On Balance and in Conclusion
Don’t worry, you don’t have to play the purist Hit and Run. While it makes the most mathematical sense, it isn’t that much fun. I want you to have more winning sessions and have some fun. In fact, I recommend that you make your bet sizes around 20% of your profit target and that you have at least enough for your session bankroll for 20 bets.
So if we want to make $100 on our gambling sessions. We make our standard bet $20 and we want to have a bankroll of about $400. This is enough to survive if the first swing of luck goes the casino’s way. Don’t worry, in the short run, the luck swings both ways. And once it does start to swing the other way, you only need to wait until your 5 bets ahead. This is a good strategy because while you can survive 20 bets against you, you only need 5 bets in your favor to succeed.
I hope this little guide helps you win and beat the house on some of your guerilla raids.
Good Luck!
